Hello defence lovers! In the previous article, we understood what Pakistani Deep State is and what are its Strategic objectives In this article we are going to discuss why the Pakistani deep State’s Long term objectives are irrational and Why it is still believing or rather pretending to believe in those objectives. we would also try to figure out why Pakistan uses Terrorism as a foreign policy tool against India to achieve its objectives.
A Short Recapitulation
Terrorist groups are important foreign policy tools for the Pakistani Deep State to help achieve its strategic objectives.
In the last part, we tried to figure out the answer to ” Why Pakistan supports terrorism?” through the above statement. We saw that Stoping India’s Rise, seizing Jammu and Kashmir, and avenging the past defeats were the key strategic objectives. we also understood that Pakistan feeling the existential threat from India was the root cause behind the initiation of the hostilities.
Irrational Strategic Objectives
Now let us understand why these three objectives are totally irrational and meaningless. Pakistan has always felt an existential threat from India. But in the very first place, India recognized Pakistan as a country that actually led to its formation during the independence struggle. Since independence, India has never denied the existence of Pakistan as a country. Hence feeling the existential threat from India is extreme stupidity.
Talking about the first objective, that is stopping India’s Rise, Pakistan can neither stop nor slow down India from Rising. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the world bank, India is the world’s 5th largest economy in nominal terms and second-biggest economy in terms of purchasing power parity. According to the Global firepower index, India has the world’s 4th strongest military. India is a significant part of the world order and perhaps the most important country in Asia for keeping the region stable. Thus Pakistan’s first objective has miserably failed.
Talking about the second objective, seizing Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan knows very well it is impossible. Indian military is way more superior to the Pakistani military. And any direct attempt to seize Jammu Kashmir can end up with a nuclear war. Moreover talks of Area exchange is now not at all culturally and politicaly feasible.
And talking about the last objective, avenging the defeat of the 1971 war, Pakistan suffered the consequences of its own action. The 1971 war and independence of Bangladesh was a result of the oppression of the Bengalis in East Pakistan. The Bangladeshi genocide and Pakistan’s inhuman oppressive policies were the sole reason for its bifurcation, not India.
So Why Pakistan Supports Terrorism?
So we saw how irrational and unrealistic Pakistan’s strategic objectives are. So why still it uses these to justify the violence against India? why does it still use terrorism as its foreign policy tool? Let us understand why.
If there is peace between India and Pakistan. The region would no longer have the instability. The common Pakistani man won’t feel the existential threat anymore. People would understand what they were hearing from the Army for decades was a complete lie. Thus bringing an end to this conflict would bring an end to the Deep State’s dominance over Pakistan which the army could not let happen.
Thus it is very crucial for Pakistan to keep the conflict and the violence going. Pakistan is inferior to India in terms of military strength and Pakistan understands it very well. It just cannot engage itself in conventional warfare with India as it would be disastrous. Hence Pakistan is engaged in the proxy war or unconventional war through terrorism to keep the conflict continued.
Proxy wars are low-cost wars. Pakistan doesn’t need to spend huge from its already bankrupt economy to keep the conflict going. No costly equipment, no sophisticated weapons, Only a few misguided men, and few small arms are enough to fight the proxy war of terrorism.
This proxy war gives Pakistan the deniability factor. It can plan attacks and still deny when those are executed as it does all the time.
How We Can Stop This Terrorism?
If a proper civilian government comes to power in Pakistan, then the problem will be solved. The focus of a civilian govern is its own nation’s prosperity not the destruction of the other nation. Thus it would divert resources from the army and use them for economic development. Sadly the deep state would never let this happen.
The second way is that the deep state changes its strategic objectives. But this is not going to happen as the same ideology has been embedded into the minds of Generals of the Pakistani Army generations after generations. These objectives are in their culture, in their blood.
The Third way is changing the cost-benefit equation of this proxy war. When Pakistan would pay heavy prices for its actions, it will stop these actions on its own. We have to make the cost of terrorism unbearable for Pakistan. The Balakot airstrikes and surgical strikes in POK were an attempt to increase this particular cost. FATF is another significant factor. Pakistan must be blacklisted by FATF which would make the cost unbearable for Pakistan’s Bankrupt and indebted economy. Any misadventure must be responded to with massive military action. Then only we can end Pakistan’s policy of terrorism.