Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan: A Possibility?

Hello defence lovers! Amidst the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, world leaders have started raising serious concerns over the Chinese Invasion of Taiwan. This threat is really very serious as this could escalate to the third world war itself. This will not just affect Taiwan, but every single country on the planet including India severely. In this article, we are going to discuss why the possibility of the Chinese Invasion of Taiwan cannot be ruled out at this moment looking at the chaos in the world order created by the Ukraine crisis.

A Perfect Scenario?

The world is already is in economic turmoil. First, the Chinese Virus and now the Ukraine war, the stock markets all over the world are crashing. Crude oil prices have already hit their all-time high ( $120 per Barrel) due to the ongoing Ukraine Crisis and Sanctions on China. The Biden Administration is preoccupied with the Ukraine war after it lost Afghanistan to the Taliban. Moreover, Xi Jinping’s grand vision is to unite Taiwan with the Chinese mainland by 2025. All these situations make it the perfect time for China to invade Taiwan for reunification.

Will America Come To Taiwan’s Rescue?

Comparing Taiwan’s military strength with China would not be fair. In case of an invasion, Taiwanese forces would be able to hold their ground until help arrives. But let us not discuss the strategic elements of the Taiwan invasion over here, we will discuss it in detail in our upcoming article. The most crucial question is whether America will come to Taiwan’s recuse or abandon it like Afghanistan and Ukraine.

What differentiates Taiwan from Ukraine and Afghanistan is its extremely important semiconductor industry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is Taiwan’s invisible yet strongest armour against China. TSMC has alone more than 50% market share in the global semiconductor chip market. The US and other countries including India are extremely dependent on Taiwan for semiconductors. Semiconductor chips are an integral part of every electronic equipment we use today. The world has not yet recovered from the chip shortage created by the Covid 19 pandemic. Moreover, setting up semiconductor manufacturing plants is an extremely complex and costly process. That is why still today the world is dependent upon the small island nation for its chip requirement. Thus if TSMC’s factories are destroyed in the Chinese invasion, it will send the world back into the stone age.

Another big reason for America to fight for Taiwan is the huge oil and gas resources present in the South China sea. According to estimates, there are over 3 trillion tonnes of crude oil which are till this day untapped. Losing Taiwan to China will be a strategic blunder for America as this will completely destroy America’s hegemony. China will have unchallenged access to the vast economic resources of the South China sea. The US just couldn’t let this happen as whenever economic interests are involved, American forces become the flag bearer in the conflict.

Thus the Biden administration has made it clear that they will send their forces immediately if China invades Taiwan. Moreover, the Biden administration has already sent a delegation of former senior United States defence and security officials to Taiwan to deal with the panic of Invasion.

What Will Be The Impact On India?

Now let us discuss the impact of the invasion of Taiwan on India. Indian industries are still suffering from the global shortage of semiconductor chips. In case of an invasion, the shortage of chips can lead to the collapse of many industries. Moreover, this will lead to Chinese hegemony in the world as China will become the unchallenged power in the South China sea. Being overconfident China can also attempt to take the disputed Indian territories without anticipating India’s strength and will to fight. That could have disastrous consequences on the entire region and we hope that day never arrives.

Let us know in the comments if you want a detailed analysis of the invasion of Taiwan covering the military aspects of the Invasion.