In 2013, a research paper was published by a Chinese University, which tells about the possible Chinese confrontation with its neighboring countries. The paper discussed the six wars that China is likely to fight over the next 50 years, in order to extend its territorial gains and fulfill its expansionist aim.
The rationality of the research paper cannot be judged, but it will tell us about how China views the world when it comes to increasing its territorial rights.
In this article we will discuss about the possible wars, that China is likely to fight in upcoming years………… let’s start………….
Unification Of Taiwan To Mainland China (By 2025)
Taiwan considers itself a sovereign and democratic country. China perceives Taiwan as a part of its own territory. China follows the One China Policy, which means if any country has to establish relations with China, then they will have to recognize Taiwan as a territory of China.
The birth of Taiwan took place in 1949, after 20 years of the Chinese Civil War. In that war, the communist had defeated the nationalist faction. After the defeat, the nationalist flee to Taiwan island and established their own democratic country. And since then, China considers Taiwan as a part of its own territory.
The unification of Taiwan with mainland China will be the first war that China will fight by 2025. It will be a major geopolitical event in the world if China will succeed in its plan.
Considering the current trends, the Chinese Government and the Communist Party of China (CCP) are facing backlash both from its own citizens and the world, over the issue of coronavirus. To maintain a good image of Xi Jinping, who is the President for life, and to deviate the attention from the coronavirus, Taiwan unification will be the first event that Jinping will consider.
The unification will much depend on whether the US and other countries will intervene or not. The US openly supports Taiwan sovereignty and provides much assistance to Taiwan like weapons and funds. On many occasions, the US has threatened China, that war with Taiwan means war with the US.
So it will be a major event to watch if US will intervene or not. If it does so, then China will not be able to complete its plan. If it doesn’t then China will capture Taiwan just like Tibet.
Reconquest Of Islands In South China Sea (By 2030)
After unification of Taiwan, the next target for China will be capturing of islands and maintaining it full sovereignty in South China Sea.
China claims of whole South China Sea and the small islands like Spartly, Scarborough, Paracel etc., that it all belongs to China. China wants other countries to follow the Nine Dash Line rule. Countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, Philippines etc,. at many instances have opposed China but inspite of their opposition, China is continuing to maintain its claim. Even it rejected the verdict of International Court of Justice (ICJ), that the SCS belongs to its all neighbouring countries as per UNCLOS.
South China Sea is a strategically very important for China, as one-third of its trade passes through it. South China Sea is also very rich in resources like petroleum, polymetallic nodules etc., if China succeeds in its aim, then it will be easy for it to extract these resources.
Again it will much depend on US intervention. As US openly advocates the free and fair movement of items in South China Sea and also a supporter of freedom of navigation. US has a military pact with the Philippines that will eventually drag US in the war. So again it will be a major event to see.
Try To Capture Arunachal Pradesh(By 2040)
China has still not recognized Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India. Even they didn’t call it Arunachal Pradesh, they call it Southern Tibet. Any attempt of development in Arunachal Pradesh by the Indian government, face many vocal allegations by the Chinese.
You can read here, about Why China is interested in Arunachal Pradesh? Why it want take it from India?………………
But in a nutshell, China follows the ideology of Mao Zedong who after capturing Tibet in 1950 had said “Tibet is like a palm and Ladakh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh are its fingers”. And to complete the ideology of Mao, China’s first target is capturing of Arunachal Pradesh.
If China attempts so, then it will be a huge disaster for both India and China as both countries are nuclear-armed, have ICBMs, and possess advanced weaponry. Any provocative action from China will be a complete disaster. Totally it will be a case of a stalemate, where neither country will win.
Reconquest of Diaoyu island (Senkaku) In East China Sea (By 2045)
Diaoyu islands (known as Senkaku Island in Japan) are a group of inhabited islands, which are located in the East China Sea. Once used to be a part of China, but after declining of Chinese imperialism, Japan had successfully captured it under its control in the year 1895 after the first Japanese-China war. And since then it is being administered under Japanese control.
Diaoyu islands have many proven oil reserves. It has also a potential fishing area. Both China and Taiwan claim their ownership separately.
Japanese had done mass rapes, killings, and murders of Chinese citizens during World War II. Most Chinese wants to take revenge for their suffering from the Japanese. And the issue of the Diaoyu island is a proper cause of getting their intention fulfilled.
By 1945, China will have surpassed the US in all aspects. And despite US intervention, it can attempt to take their territory back.
Reunification of Outer Mongolia (By 2050)
Mongolia now is an independent country. Earlier the country was divided into two-part as inner Mongolia and Outer Mongolia. It takes its current shape in the 1990s when the two factions of Mongolia united to form a single country.
Outer Mongolia was administered by the Qing Dynasty of China till 1911. But after declining of Qing Dynasty it got its independence from China.
China aims to get outer Mongolia back under its control. It will help China to deploy its soldiers to the Russian border, which will eventually help China in getting its lost territories from Russia.
Reconquest Of Its Lost Territories From Russia (By 2060)
In the days of “Old China”, Russia has occupied around one hundred and sixty million square kilometers of lands, equivalent to one-sixth of the landmass of the current domain of China. Currently, the area belongs to Russia located on the far eastern side of Russian territory. Russia is therefore the bitter enemy of China. After the victories of the previous five wars, it is time to make Russians pay their price.
Russia fears the rise of China threatens its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.
The article has nothing to do with reality. It is only just about a hypothetical scenario about the possible Chinese confrontation in the upcoming few decades. It is purely based on the research paper which was published by the Chinese University in 2013.