Afghanistan has been a chessboard in a major geopolitical rivalry between the great powers for centuries. Afghanistan is cursed by its geopolitical relevance as it acts as a link between central and south Asia, which has dragged it to the crossroads of the great game between major empires. As a result, Afghanistan has always been in a perpetual state of anarchy. With the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan during the Cold War, Afghanistan became a host for proxy wars. The Soviet-US rivalry paved the way for Pakistan to feed off the exploits and gains in Afghanistan. In a way, Pakistan acted as a parasite, furthering its strategic ambitions at the cost of the native Afghans. One such ambition was Pakistan’s doctrine of strategic depth, which aimed at exploiting Afghan instability for its national interests. Today, this once-bragged manoeuvre by Pakistan’s establishment proves to be a fatal blunder.
DOCTRINE OF STRATEGIC DEPTH: PAKISTAN’S AFGHAN OBSESSION
Pakistan’s doctrine of strategic depth was the brainchild of General Mirza Aslam Begh, who served as Chief of Army Staff under PM Benazir Bhutto. The doctrine stems from Pakistan’s geographic insecurities in the event of any blitzkrieg offensive by India. Since its inception, Pakistan has lived under constant fear of any large-scale invasion from India on its eastern borders. The fear emanates from its narrow geographic width. Should India launch a ground offensive, it would just take a few hours to breach Pakistan’s defences and enter its urban centres. This fear was amplified during the 1965 war when, in retaliation to Pakistani aggression in Kashmir, the Indian army opened its western borders and reached Lahore. To neutralise this limitation, Pakistan’s establishment came up with the doctrine of strategic depth.
The doctrine aimed to use Afghan territory as a “strategic rallying point” where they could, in the event of a successful Indian assault, retreat to and re-group for a counter-attack. Thus, Pakistan aimed to exploit Afghanistan as an instrument of strategic security by attempting to control Afghanistan as a pawn for its interests. The quest for strategic depth led Pakistan to raise and support various terrorist outfits in Afghanistan. This explains Pakistan’s support for the Haqqani network and other factions within the Taliban. The idea was to aid pro-Pakistan factions over others and expand their reign of influence in a segregated Afghanistan. By doing so, Pakistan could use Afghan territory controlled by these outfits as its backyard when needed. The ambition of turning Afghanistan into Pakistan’s 5th province, as often mocked by former DG ISI Hamid Gul, is the bottom line of Pakistan’s doctrine of strategic depth.
THE MYTH BUSTED: FACING NEW AFGHAN REALITIES
When the world was shunned by the Taliban takeover of Kabul on August 15, 2021, there was a carousel in Pakistani establishments. The Taliban takeover was seen as the magnum opus of Pakistan’s doctrine of strategic depth. It was the culmination of decades-long perfidy that Pakistan played to attain strategic depth in Afghanistan. This revelry was on display, with former PM Imran lauding the Taliban takeover as breaking the shackles of slavery. The entire Pakistani establishment went bonkers. Then-DG ISI Faiz Hameed flew to Kabul to personally congratulate the Taliban and celebrate their victory over a tea party. Little did they know that soon this myth of strategic depth was going to turn into strategic death for Pakistan. All the objectives Pakistan dreamed of achieving post-Taliban takeover, like border settlement, internal security, etc., soon went down the drain in the following manner:
THE DURAND DELIEMMA
The Durand Line, which forms the de facto Pakistan-Afghan border, is the biggest long-standing issue between the two nations. It is also the biggest insecurity for Pakistan, as it stems from a larger notion of Pashtun nationalism. Since its inception, no Afghan ruler has ever accepted the Durand line as a Pakistan-Afghan border. According to Afghans, the Durand Line was forcefully imposed on them by the British. It separates Pashtuns living on either side of the border. With the Taliban at the helm of affairs, Pakistan expected to settle the border dispute and seal a deal. Unfortunately, the Taliban turned out to be more Pashtun than Pakistan expected. One of the primary reasons Pakistan celebrated the Taliban takeover was the hope of securing its western borders once and for all. To Pakistan’s surprise, if anything, the Taliban takeover re-ignited the border tussle with more velocity.
Since it came to power, the Taliban has asserted a right to free movement of people across the Durand Line. According to the Taliban, the entire region of Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province, FATA (Federal Administered Tribal Areas), till the Margala Hills in Islamabad, belongs to Afghanistan. This has resulted in a series of border clashes between the Taliban and Pakistan, resulting in casualties. Soon after the takeover, the Taliban restricted the Pakistan Army from fencing its 2300 km border with Afghanistan. These clashes gradually took a turn into a wider conflict that heated the entire border. One such fierce clash occurred in the Chaman-Spin-Boldak region, a vital cross-border trade point. Taliban forces started knocking down border fences across the Durand line. Border crossings, casualties, and diplomatic altercations have now become the norm. Three years down the line, Pakistan found itself sandwiched between two hostile borders between Afghanistan and India.
TEHREEK-E-TALIBAN PAKISTAN 2.0
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a Taliban offshoot of Pakistan, has been revitalised since the Taliban takeover. Before the takeover, TTP had dwindled in Pakistan following two counter-terrorism operations, Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad, by the Pakistan Army. As a result, several TTP fighters got killed, some got arrested, and many fled to Afghanistan. The Taliban takeover re-ignited TTP and boosted its morale as well as logistics. Pakistan, on the other hand, was living in a chimaera where the Afghan Taliban would assist Pakistan in curbing TTP operations in Pakistan. However, Pakistan’s delusions soon hit a dead end. The Taliban, after gaining control, released TTP commander Maulvi Faqir Mohammad along with 300 TTP fighters who were jailed by the previous Afghan government. This came as a shocker to the Pakistani establishment. And rightly so, since the Kabul takeover, there has been a series of attacks on the Pakistan Army by the TTP.
Also Read, Taliban: Pakistan’s Frankenstein Monster
This time, TTP is equipped with modern American weapons left over by US troops, which are then captured and supplied to TTP by the Taliban. These weapons include snipers, night vision sights, bulletproof vests, etc. With these weapons and backing from the Afghan Taliban, the TTP wreaked havoc on Pakistani forces. In 2023 alone, the Pakistan Army claimed that 265 officers and soldiers died in these attacks. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa police also claimed that they lost 185 personnel in militant attacks. Overall, nationwide, Pakistan suffered around 1000 soldier and civilian casualties in 2023 alone. On several accounts, Pakistan tried to persuade the Taliban to give them TTP fighters operating from Afghanistan, but to no avail. Pakistan’s request to act against TTP was met with indifference and advice to negotiate with TTP. In reality, TTP and Taliban are two sides of the same coin, just that Pakistan learned it in a bloody way.
CONCLUSION
It’s fair to say that Pakistan’s wet dreams of its Afghan policy are now shattered. Instead of gaining strategic depth in Afghanistan, it’s the Taliban has gained strategic depth inside Pakistan. Pakistan is a classic example of what happens when you are too clever by half. Pakistan was isolated diplomatically because of its double game and support for the Taliban in Afghanistan and, in return, achieved nothing. The only thing Pakistan achieved through its disastrous Afghan policy was a rise in terrorism, casualties, and a new hot border. Pakistan today is fighting internally with the TTP and on its borders with the Afghan Taliban. To no one’s surprise, Pakistan is to blame for its woes. Some Pakistani senators also raised concerns over Pakistan’s half-witted Afghan policy of supporting the Taliban to gain strategic depth. Pakistan, instead, has created a Frankenstein monster for which it has to pay in blood.
