India–Bangladesh relations, rooted in shared history and geographic proximity, have long been a cornerstone of South Asian regional stability. From India’s role in Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation to deep cooperation in trade, energy, and connectivity, the partnership has evolved into one of mutual strategic importance. However, the political upheaval in Bangladesh following the 2024 uprising and the subsequent interim administration under Muhammad Yunus disrupted this trajectory. Suddenly, decades of carefully calibrated engagement were thrown into uncertainty. But geography doesn’t change. Neither does history. With the election of a new government led by Tariq Rehman in early 2026, both nations are now attempting to restore momentum in bilateral ties. Post-Yunus interlude, there’s reason—cautious, measured, but genuine—for hope. This phase represents a crucial recalibration shaped by diplomacy, domestic politics, and regional geopolitics. In this piece, we’ll look at the trajectory of rebuilding bilateral ties and the challenges that threaten to offset this process.
THE YUNUS INTERREGNUM: A PHASE OF FRICTION
The fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024 and the installation of an interim administration under Muhammad Yunus triggered a diplomatic chill, reversing years of steady cooperation under Sheikh Hasina. While the interim government maintained that it sought stable ties with India, the period was characterized by visible friction and mistrust. Initially, political instability within Bangladesh had a direct spillover effect on diplomacy. Anti-India protests and incidents of political violence created an atmosphere of hostility, even leading to the suspension of visa services at one point. This was followed by a perceptible shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy. The Yunus administration sought to diversify external partnerships, including stronger engagement with China, which raised strategic concerns in New Delhi. Certain statements—such as Yunus’s controversial remarks regarding the Bay of Bengal—were perceived in India as assertive and unsettling.
A major strategic concern emerged from Dhaka’s renewed engagement with Pakistan. Reports of interactions involving Pakistan’s military establishment, including officials linked to the ISI, and their visits to sensitive regions near India’s “Chicken’s Neck” (Siliguri Corridor), heightened India’s security anxieties due to the corridor’s critical importance in connecting the Northeast. Additionally, incidents involving the minority Hindu community in Bangladesh also contributed to the downturn. Reports of over 645 incidents involving attacks on minority communities during the interim period became a sensitive issue in India, given its domestic political implications and cross-border cultural ties. Security cooperation—particularly on counter-terrorism and insurgency—witnessed a slowdown, raising concerns in New Delhi. Simultaneously, progress on key bilateral initiatives such as connectivity and trade facilitation projects stalled due to lack of political momentum. Collectively, these developments led to a trust deficit, shifting India–Bangladesh relations from a phase of close partnership to one of caution and strategic unease.
POST TRANSITION: REVIVAL OF INDIA-BANGLADESH TIES
The political transition in 2026, which brought the Tariq Rehman-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to power, has ushered in a renewed emphasis on repairing relations with India. Following the 2026 elections, the government led by Tariq Rehman initiated a structured revival of ties with India through sustained diplomatic engagement. Prime Minister Narendra Modi promptly congratulated Rehman and extended an invitation for an official visit, signaling early outreach. India was represented at the swearing-in ceremony by a high-level delegation, reflecting formal recognition and goodwill. Even prior to the elections, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had engaged with Rehman, ensuring continuity in dialogue. This reflected India’s proactive approach to mend strained ties. Post-elections, the Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka held meetings with Bangladesh’s new leadership and foreign ministry, restarting institutional dialogue mechanisms. Subsequently, security and intelligence-level exchanges also resumed, indicating renewed cooperation in counter-terrorism.
Additionally, proactive steps are taken toward restoring visa services to bolster people-to-people movement, which was on halt under Yunus’s regime. Along with this, economic cooperation is also regaining traction. India continues to play a critical role in Bangladesh’s energy security, exemplified by the recent supply of 7,000 tonnes of diesel via cross-border pipelines. Energy cooperation has acted as a stabilizing factor during diplomatic resets. Trade between the two nations remains substantial, with bilateral trade historically crossing $18–20 billion annually, making Bangladesh one of India’s largest trading partners in South Asia. Renewed efforts are underway to remove non-tariff barriers and enhance connectivity through road, rail, and inland waterways. Furthermore, the tone of bilateral diplomacy has shifted noticeably. The Rehman government has emphasized pragmatic cooperation, economic growth, and regional stability, while also addressing domestic concerns such as minority rights—issues that had earlier strained ties.
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Despite the positive momentum, India remains cautious about the long-term trajectory of its relationship with Bangladesh. Several structural and strategic challenges persist. A key concern is the growing influence of China in Bangladesh. Beijing’s investments in infrastructure and defense cooperation present a strategic dilemma for India, particularly in the context of the Bay of Bengal and the broader Indo-Pacific region. Additionally, unresolved bilateral issues continue to cast a shadow over relations. The Teesta River water-sharing agreement remains pending, while concerns over border management—including illegal migration, smuggling, and border violence—require sustained cooperation. These issues have historically complicated bilateral engagement and remain politically sensitive.
Furthermore, domestic political dynamics within Bangladesh pose an element of unpredictability. The re-entry of extremist Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-islami into mainstream politics and shifting alliances could influence Dhaka’s foreign policy orientation, potentially affecting India’s strategic interests. Additionally, societal perceptions and political narratives on both sides continue to influence diplomatic outcomes. Anti-India sentiments during periods of political unrest in Bangladesh—and corresponding concerns in India regarding minority safety—highlight the fragile nature of public trust in bilateral relations.
CONCLUSION
India–Bangladesh relations, after uncertainty during Muhammad Yunus’s tenure, are stabilizing under Tariq Rehman’s leadership. Recent diplomatic outreach and resumed exchanges signal a pragmatic effort to rebuild mutual trust. Both sides are refocusing on economic cooperation and strengthening security collaboration. However, the relationship remains complex due to regional competition and unresolved bilateral concerns. Domestic political sensitivities in both countries further continue to influence the trajectory of ties. The sustainability of this reset depends on consistent high-level engagement and mutual respect for core interests. A balanced approach to external partnerships will also shape the future of relations. For India, strong ties with Bangladesh are essential for regional connectivity and stability. For Bangladesh, cooperation with India remains crucial for economic growth and security. Ultimately, a stable and forward-looking partnership will hinge on transforming this cautious rapprochement into enduring strategic trust.
