The HAL Tejas Story—Innovation, Power & Export Potential

The HAL Tejas represents a critical milestone in India’s defense industrial base, symbolizing technological self-reliance and capability-building in aerospace. A 4.5-generation light combat aircraft, Tejas integrates advanced avionics, fly-by-wire controls, and multirole mission flexibility at a competitive cost. Operational with the Indian Air Force and Navy, and recently cleared for large-scale induction, it provides India with a scalable platform to meet domestic squadron needs while offering export potential to price-sensitive markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Strategic Impact and ‘Make in India’

This massive order boosts IAF’s combat strength and dramatically reinforces India’s defense manufacturing ecosystem. The Tejas Mk-1A is around 4× cheaper than the Rafale, and over 65% of components are indigenously produced—supporting MSMEs and offsetting supply chain vulnerabilities. With this order, the total Tejas Mk-1A commitment climbs to approximately 180 jets.  

Recent Major Developments

• 97 new Tejas Mk-1A jets and 6 AEW&C aircraft approved by India’s Cabinet Committee on Security
• Total order value: ₹85,500 crore ($9.83 billion)
• Marks a pivotal strengthening of IAF’s indigenous fleet capabilit

Tejas: Key Systems & Subsystems

1. Airframe & Flight Control

• Design: Single-engine, tailless delta-wing with relaxed static stability (RSS) for high agility. Incorporates composites for RCS reduction and lightweight structure. 
• Flight Control: Quadruplex Digital Fly-by-Wire (DFCC) system (four channels, independent power). 
• Cockpit: Glass cockpit with HUD, multiple MFDs (3–2 depending variant), HOTAS, and helmet-mounted display (HMDS). 

2. Avionics & Sensors

• Radar:
  • Mk 1: EL/M-2032 PESA radar.
  • Mk 1A: Transitioning to EL/M-2052 AESA and indigenous Uttam AESA. 
• Other Sensors:
  • Forward Looking Infrared (FLIR) via Litening pods.
  • Mk 2 will add IRST and multisensor data fusion. 
• EW Suite:
  • Mk 1: Basic EW with RWR, chaff/flare dispenser.
  • Mk 1A: Unified Electronic Warfare Suite (UEWS), external self-protection jammer (e.g., Elta ELL-8222WB), secure radios. 
• Nav & Data:
  • INS + GPS, 1553B digital bus, mission computers (×3+). Voice/data links, friend-or-foe IFF. 
• Life Support:
  • Mk 1: LOX system.
  • Mk 1A: On-board Oxygen Generation System (OBOGS). 

3. Weapons & Payloads

• Equipped with 7–9 hardpoints for missiles, bombs, rockets, pods.
• Air-to-Air:
  • BVRAAM: Astra, R-77, Derby, potential AMRAAM/Meteor.
  • WVR: R-73, Python-5, ASRAAM. 
• Air-to-Ground/Maritime:
  • Kh-59 series, AASM Hammer, bombs, rockets. Future: BrahMos-NG on Mk 2. 
• Gun: Internal 23 mm GSh-23 cannon. 
• Support Pods: Litening targeting, EW, counter-measures. 
• Health Monitoring: Onboard diagnostics and maintenance alerts. 

Tejas Mk2 (Medium Weight Fighter): Advancements Ahead

• Airframe: Lengthened by ~1.4 m, with canards and LERX for improved aerodynamics. 
• Engine & Performance:
  • GE F414-INS6 (~98 kN thrust).
  • Payload up to 6.5 t; combat radius ~1,500 km; top speed ~Mach 1.8. 
• Sensors & Avionics:
  • Uttam AESA, IRST, multisensor fusion, software-defined radios, data-links. 
• Cockpit: Touchscreen wide-area displays, side-stick, reduced physical switches, holographic HUD. 
• Timeline: Prototype rollout expected by 2025; first flight ~2026; production from 2029. 

Comparison with Contenders (e.g., JF-17, F-16, Gripen)

Context & Developments from News

• Radar/EW Origins: HAL controversially opted for Israeli components over DRDO’s Uttam AESA and SRK EW in some Mk1A batches—raising autonomy concerns. 
• Production Plans: Delivery of Tejas Mk1A jets begins by March 2026; supply of GE F404 engines is ramping up, easing earlier delays. 
• Orders Boost: Indian Cabinet has approved ₹62,000 crore for 97 upgraded Tejas Mk1A aircraft—signifying strong strategic commitment.

Tejas Mk-2 Simulator Unveiled

The upcoming Tejas Mk-2 prototype’s cockpit has been revealed through a simulator demonstration. It features a modern layout with a large touchscreen, side-stick joystick, and fewer physical switches—designed for improved pilot ergonomics. The aircraft will boast advanced sensor fusion, streamlined missile targeting, an enhanced electronic warfare suite, larger weapons/fuel capacity, and better environmental controls. The Tejas Mk-2 prototype is expected to roll out by May 2026. 

Overcoming Production Bottlenecks

Production delays—mainly due to late supply of GE’s F404 engines—have plagued the program. However:

• Engine delivery is now back on track, with GE set to supply two engines per month until March 2026. 
• HAL expects to deliver 12 Mk-1A aircraft by end of FY 2025–26, with 6 already built using reserve engines. 

Industrial Milestones & Supply Chain Expansion

• VEM Technologies (Hyderabad) delivered the first centre fuselage for the Mk-1A to HAL, marking the addition of a fourth production line and showcasing growing private-sector participation. 
• The Uttam AESA radar—being tested on Tejas Mk-1 prototypes—has cleared multiple performance and qualification stages. Plans are underway for its integration into future Mk-1A batches, elevating combat capability. 

Summary Table

In essence, India is rapidly enhancing its military aviation ecosystem: from modernizing Tejas variants and resolving production bottlenecks to nurturing a strong indigenous supply chain and advanced avionics integration. The base is set for future growth towards the Mk-2 and beyond.

HAL Tejas (Mk-1A) sits versus contemporary fighters. I’ve focused on single-engine 4/4.5-gen peers (fairer comparison), then noted how it stacks against heavier/twin-engine types.

Quick comparison (core specs & roles)

Heavier/twin-engine yardsticks (not a like-for-like class)

• MiG-35 (Russia): Twin-engine 4+ gen, Zhuk-AE AESA on some; 24.5 t MTOW; larger payload/range than Tejas, but export traction limited. 
• Eurofighter Typhoon (UK/EU): Twin-engine 4.5 gen with Captor-E AESA on newest tranches; top-tier A2A/A2G but far costlier to buy/operate.  

What this means for Tejas (Mk-1A) in plain terms

Strengths

• Cost & sustainment: Designed as a light, affordable 4+ gen platform; high composites reduce corrosion/maintenance. Good for high sortie rates. 
• Avionics/EW path: Mk-1A adds AESA + self-protection jammer; Indian Uttam AESA integration roadmap improves sovereignty & exportability. 
• Weapons growth: Native integration of Indian BVR (Astra) and PGMs provides independence from foreign supply shocks. 

Trade-offs vs bigger peers

• Payload/range: Below F-16V, J-10C, Typhoon. Tejas is a light fighter by design; you trade raw payload/range for lower cost and easier basing. 
• Ecosystem maturity: F-16/Gripen have decades of global sustainment pipelines; Tejas is catching up as production scales. 

Versus specific rivals

• F-16V: F-16 carries more, goes farther, and has a massive weapons catalog; Tejas counters with lower ownership cost and growing indigenous sensors/weapons.  
• Gripen E: Closest conceptual peer; Gripen E has a more powerful engine (F414) and strong EW/ datalinks; Tejas aims for similar mission sets with a lower national cost base.  
• J-10C: Heavier, more thrust, long-range PL-15; Tejas focuses on point defense/strike within regional envelopes and networked IAF tactics.  
• JF-17 Block III: Roughly similar weight/payload class; Tejas generally scores higher on materials/avionics integration and IAF ecosystem, while JF-17 B3 brings AESA + PL-15E to the table.  
• FA-50: A cost-effective light fighter/advanced trainer; Tejas has broader indigenous weapons flexibility and a purer combat focus.  

 Where Tejas is headed next

• Mk-1A fleet scale-up (confirmed large IAF orders) should lower costs and accelerate the domestic supply chain.  
• Mk-2 (medium-weight, F414 class engine) targets the gap with F-16/Gripen-E/J-10C on payload/range with a larger airframe and sensor fusion cockpit.  

The engine situation for India’s Tejas fighters, including how the newly approved 97 jets stack up against current engine supply, and what lies ahead for the Tejas Mk-2 project.

1. Tejas Mk-1A & Engine Supply Status

• 97 additional Mk-1A jets approved by the Indian government represents a major boost for the IAF and “Make in India” strategy.  
• These Tejas Mk-1A aircraft rely on the GE F404-IN20 engines. Engine deliveries were delayed due to global supply chain issues but are now back on track.
  • GE has committed to delivering two F404 engines per month through March 2026.  
  • With delays factored in, HAL aims to deliver 12 Mk-1A jets by the end of 2025, using these incoming engines.  
  • Given current supply projections, these engines deliveries should support at least the early batch of Mk-1A jets. The additional 97-jet order will require continued, stable engine production.

2. Future Engine Path: Tejas Mk-2 & Locally Produced GE F414

• The Tejas Mk-2 will upgrade to the more powerful GE F414-INS6 engines (~98 kN thrust).
• In June 2023, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and GE Aerospace signed an MoU to jointly manufacture F414 engines in India, with up to 80% Transfer of Technology (ToT).
• GE Aerospace has been present in India for over 40 years, contributing across multiple domains such as engines, avionics, services, engineering, manufacturing, and local sourcing. The agreement is also expected to increase production activities at several U.S. facilities that already support the F414 engine.
• The partnership envisions co-production of the F414 engines in India, pending export authorization from the U.S. government. This initiative is closely linked with the Indian Air Force’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk2 program. A Manufacturing License Agreement (MLA) and security clearance (DSP-83) were successfully completed in September 2024.
• Discussions on technology transfer are nearly finalized; only commercial negotiations remain, with the overall agreement expected to close by March–mid-2025.
• The deal reinforces GE Aerospace’s earlier plan to deliver 99 engines for the IAF’s LCA Mk2 fleet. It further positions the company to establish a product ecosystem in India, including:
• The F404 engine, currently used in LCA Mk1/Mk1A.
• The F414-INS6 engine for AMCA prototype development, testing, and certification.
• Collaboration on the AMCA Mk2 engine program with the Indian government.
• HAL is preparing a new production plant near Bangalore, scheduled to begin operations in about two years, with the first indigenous F414 deliveries targeted by mid-2028.
• Planned production rates:
  • 1 engine per month initially, scaling to 2 engines per month.
  • This will support roughly 24 Tejas Mk2 aircraft per year by 2030–31.
  • Long-term projections indicate up to 400 engines could be produced, covering additional platforms such as the Twin-Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TEDBF) and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA)

3. Strategic Notes & Alternative Considerations

• Delays in F404 supply for Mk-1A—driven by supply chain disruptions—threatened production schedules, but the current ramp-up in F404 deliveries is alleviating immediate constraints. 
• For Tejas Mk-2 and beyond, the F414 project is central, not just engine-wise but also as a technology leap for Indian aerospace capabilities. 
• Safran (France) has emerged as a strong alternate engine partner offering a 110 kN thrust engine along with comprehensive technology transfer—being explored amid delays and rising costs from the US route.

Summary Table

Bottom Line

• The 97 Mk-1A jets are going forward with engines—F404 deliveries are picking up and should cover early production batches.
• For the Mk-2, the F414 deal is pivotal. Once finalized, it sets the stage not just for Tejas Mk-2 but a broader aerospace independence across Indian fighter platforms.
• Infrastructure and capability building around engine production reinforce both defense readiness and the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” objective.

Will U.S. tariffs harm Tejas engine supply?

Short term (F404 engines for Tejas Mk-1A):

• Tariffs raise the cost of importing engines from GE in the U.S., which could slightly inflate HAL’s procurement budget.
• But India and GE already have signed contracts, and deliveries restarted in July 2025 after resolving earlier supply-chain bottlenecks. Those agreements are binding, so the U.S. tariffs are unlikely to cancel or block ongoing deliveries. At worst, costs rise, and some deliveries could be slower if GE reprioritizes exports.

Medium to long term (F414 engines for Tejas Mk-2 & AMCA):

• This is where India is insulated. The GE–HAL agreement includes co-production of F414 engines in India, with 80% indigenous content.
• Since these engines will be manufactured in India, tariff exposure on imports drops sharply. This means that even if tariffs bite into GE’s U.S. operations, India’s domestic assembly line protects Tejas Mk-2 and AMCA from future disruptions.

Will the agreement stand still?

Yes — the engine agreement will stand firm because:

1. It is strategic, not just commercial. The U.S. sees the GE–HAL engine deal as a pillar of India–U.S. defense ties.
2. India has already ordered 97 more Tejas Mk-1A, and engines for these are part of ongoing U.S. deliveries.
3. The F414 co-production deal (signed mid-2025) ties both countries into long-term industrial cooperation — which tariffs cannot easily undo.

Bottom line:

• No, tariffs will not derail the Tejas engine deal. They may make near-term F404 imports more expensive, but deliveries will continue.
• For the long term, local F414 production in India shields the program from tariff risk.
• The strategic importance of Tejas + AMCA means both governments will ensure supply lines Here’s a risk matrix comparing how U.S. tariffs and supply-side factors could impact Tejas Mk-1A (F404 engines) vs Tejas Mk-2/AMCA (F414 engines, co-produced in India).

Risk Matrix: Tejas Engine Supply (2025–2030)

Key Insights

• Near term (2025–2027):
  • Tariffs + supply bottlenecks can squeeze F404 imports for Tejas Mk-1A.
  • Mitigation: bulk purchase agreements, diplomatic lobbying for tariff waivers, and possibly stockpiling engines ahead of need.
• Medium to long term (2027–2030):
  • F414 co-production in India insulates Mk-2/AMCA from tariffs and most supply-chain shocks.
  • Risks shift to local industrial capacity (HAL ramp-up, local supplier reliability).
• Overall:
  • Tejas Mk-1A = short-term vulnerability.
  • Tejas Mk-2/AMCA = long-term security via indigenization.
• Cost Impact Model: U.S. Tariffs on Tejas Engines

• Baseline Costs (per engine, open-source estimates)
• GE F404 (Tejas Mk-1A): $5.5–6.5M per unit (varies by config, batch size).
• GE F414 (Tejas Mk-2 / AMCA): $9–10M per unit (higher thrust, newer tech).

Scenario 1: F404 imports for Tejas Mk-1A

• India has 97 Mk-1A ordered, needing 120+ F404 engines (aircraft + spares).
• Assuming base price $6M/engine:

Note: 25% tariff would inflate the Mk-1A engine bill by nearly $180M, squeezing HAL’s margins or forcing renegotiation with IAF.

Scenario 2: F414 co-production for Tejas Mk-2 / AMCA

• Estimated 200+ fighters (Mk-2 + AMCA), requiring 250–300 engines (aircraft + spares).
• Base import price = $9.5M/engine, but with 80% local production in India, import exposure is only 20%.

Note: Even at 25% tariff, local production insulates 80% of cost, keeping impact modest relative to Mk-1A.

Overall Findings

• Tejas Mk-1A (F404 imports): Highly vulnerable to tariffs → up to $180M extra program cost.
• Tejas Mk-2 / AMCA (F414 local): Insulated by co-production → worst-case only $144M extra, spread across a much larger program, and partly absorbed in local value-addition.
• Policy implication: India’s push for F414 local assembly is the key hedge against U.S. tariff risk.

Visual chart (bar graph) comparing tariff impact (0%, 10%, 25%) on F404 vs F414 supply for Tejas. 

Here’s the tariff impact chart for Tejas engine procurement:

• F404 (Mk-1A imports): steep rise — up to $900M at 25% tariffs.
• F414 (Mk-2/AMCA, 80% local): much flatter — worst case $2.99B vs $2.85B, since most production is insulated in India.

This clearly shows why the Mk-2/AMCA F414 co-production deal is a strategic shield against tariff and supply shocks.

Here’s the projected engine roadmap for Tejas:

• Mk-1A (97 jets approved) → Powered by F404 engines. HAL is already receiving 2 engines/month, enough for 12+ aircraft annually.
• Mk-2 & future fighters → Based on GE F414.
  • HAL & GE signed a co-production MoU in 2023, with a manufacturing license agreement cleared in 2024.
  • First indigenous F414 deliveries are expected by 2028 for Mk-2 prototypes.
  • By 2030–31, HAL’s new facility near Bangalore should scale to 2 F414s/month (24 Mk-2s annually).
  • Over the long term, 400+ F414 engines could be built in India, covering Tejas Mk-2, TEDBF, and even AMCA Mark-1.

Here’s the big picture:

• 2024–27: The IAF dips to 28 squadrons due to MiG retirements, partly offset by Tejas Mk-1A (F404 engines ramping up).
• 2028–31: The first F414-powered Tejas Mk-2 joins production, scaling sharply (up to 24 jets/year). This is when real squadron recovery begins.
• By 2031–33: IAF could rise back to 36–38 squadrons, approaching the long-term target of 42.

Engines are the pacing item:

• F404 → keeps Mk-1A on track.
• F414 → critical to Mk-2 scaling, TEDBF, and eventually AMCA.

In short, India’s engine supply line = squadron strength recovery curve.  

A regional heatmap and table showing illustrative likelihood scores and expected export ranges for Tejas by 2030.

Quick summary of the heatmap:

• Southeast Asia (70%) — 20–40 units: Strongest near-term market (Malaysia, Philippines).
• South Asia (60%) — 10–25 units: Possible buyers include Sri Lanka, Bangladesh (if price/financing align).
• Africa (55%) — 15–30 units: Price-sensitive buyers (Botswana, some African air forces) but financing is key.
• Middle East (45%) — 10–20 units: Egypt interest noted; Gulf states less likely given higher-end purchases.
• Latin America (40%) — 5–15 units: Argentina interest exists but financing and preferences matter.
• Eastern Europe / Oceania / Central Asia (20–30%) — small to nil: Low probability without major geopolitical shifts or deep offsets.

Here’s a clean, sourced comparison—and an illustrative projection—of India vs Pakistan vs China fighter strength tied to Tejas engine-driven growth.

Where things stand (2025)

• India (IAF): 29 fighter squadrons after MiG retirements; sanctioned target is 42. 
• Pakistan (PAF): 25 squadrons, built around F-16, JF-17 (including Block-III), and a growing J-10C element. Exact Block-III count is unclear; deliveries/upgrade are ongoing 
• China (PLAAF/PLANAF fighters): 66 squadrons equivalent (≈1,200 fighters), with rapid growth in J-20 and J-16 fleets.  70+ J-20s added in 11 months (Jul 2023–May 2024). 

What drives change next

• India’s curve = engines + production: F404 supply underpins Tejas Mk-1A; local F414 production unlocks Mk-2 scale-up (from late decade). That’s the main lever for recovering squadrons toward the mid-30s. (We already mapped that earlier.)
• Pakistan’s curve: Incremental JF-17 Block-III induction/upgrades and a modest J-10C buy; funding and supportability cap growth. 
• China’s curve: sustained deliveries of J-20/J-16 keep widening the gap, even if older J-7/8 retire.  

Illustrative projection (2025–2033)

This has plotted a simple, baseline scenario below using recent starting points and conservative assumptions:

• India rises from 29 → 38 squadrons by 2033 (Tejas Mk-1A + F414-powered Mk-2 ramp).
• Pakistan edges 25 → 27 squadrons.
• China climbs 66 → 75 squadrons (continued J-20/J-16 growth).

Here’s a country-by-country breakdown of Tejas export prospects, with a short procurement timeline, key decision factors for each buyer, and a realistic assessment (units & likelihood). 

1) Malaysia — Most credible near-term prospect

• What’s happening: Tejas was shortlisted against other contenders for RMAF’s light combat / lead-in trainer requirement; Korea’s FA-50 has been a strong competitor. HAL has actively pitched Tejas (Mk-1A / naval variants) including offers of local assembly/co-production.  
• Likely timeline: Decision window 2024–2026 (tender already live; contract could be signed 2025–27).
• Estimated order size: 10–20 jets (typical for the RMFA requirement).
• Key decision factors: acquisition price, lifecycle cost, weapons/munitions compatibility, transfer-of-technology/co-production, schedule and sustainment guarantee, political/diplomatic incentives. HAL must beat FA-50 on price/delivery or offer stronger offsets.  
• Likelihood: High–moderate (best near-term chance).

2) Philippines — Strategic, but competitive

• What’s happening: India and Philippines signed cooperation MOUs; HAL has pitched naval LCA versions and local assembly as incentives. Philippines previously considered other jets (F-16V, Gripen) and the MRFA competition is fierce.  
• Likely timeline: Opportunistic — could be a phased buy (helicopters/munitions first, fighters later). Real fighter decision likely 2026–2029 depending on MRFA program timing.
• Estimated order size: 6–18 jets (initial naval/strike tranche small).
• Key decision factors: interoperability with US systems/weapons, island-strike capability, local assembly & offsets, financing, US/Allied political signalling. HAL’s offer of local assembly helps, but competition is strong.  
• Likelihood: Moderate (depends on Philippines’ prioritization vs US/European options).

3) Egypt — Promising if MRO/industrial offer is strong

• What’s happening: Egyptian delegations have visited HAL; press reports link interest in 20 Tejas and an MRO/industrial tie-up. Egypt has bought varied platforms and values local sustainment capacity.  
• Likely timeline: 2025–2028 for talks → possible MoU; contract depends on financing and MRO guarantees.

• Estimated order size: 10–20 jets.Key decision factors: total life-cycle cost, MRO/co-production propositions, ability to integrate Egyptian weapons, and strategic-alignment offsets. HAL must propose local MRO and competitive pricing.   Likelihood:Moderate (credible interest but not yet firm).

4) Argentina — Politically driven interest; financing is the constraint

• What’s happening: Buenos Aires has shown repeated diplomatic interest; Argentinian pilots/test visits reported. However, tighter budgets and competing offers (used jets, other suppliers) complicate buying timelines.  
• Likely timeline: Exploratory 2024–2027; purchase only if favorable financing/offsets appear.
• Estimated order size: 6–15 jets (conservative).
• Key decision factors: price + financing (Argentina’s fiscal limits), sanctions/UK-origin component rules, logistics and spares for South Atlantic ops. HAL must offer flexible financing and a plan for UK-sourced subsystem re-licensing or substitution.  
• Likelihood: Low–moderate (interest exists but economic constraints are material).

5) Botswana — Small, opportunistic buyer

• What’s happening: Interest surfaced around Aero India; small air forces look for cost-effective fighters. HAL has engaged but Botswana’s procurement cycles are slower.  
• Likely timeline: 2025–2028 (if funds allocated).
• Estimated order size: 4–8 jets.
• Key decision factors: upfront cost, availability of used alternatives, training & sustainment packages, political ties and Commonwealth procurement options.  
• Likelihood: Low–moderate.

6) Nigeria — Was interested; now unlikely

• What’s happening: Nigeria had shown interest historically, but reports indicate talks stalled and Nigeria later progressed with JF-17 buys. As of early 2025, negotiations were reported suspended/withdrawn.  
• Likely timeline: Not active.
• Estimated order size: — (no near-term deal).
• Decision factors: price, politics, and China-Pakistan offers (JF-17) remain more attractive.  
• Likelihood: Low (dormant).

7) Sri Lanka & Other South Asian buyers

• What’s happening: Sri Lanka and some neighbours have previously explored Tejas but ultimately went for upgrades or other buys. Smaller budgets and existing suppliers (Kfir upgrades, used jets) dominate decisions.  
• Likely timeline: Opportunistic; 2026+ if financing & offset deals are offered.
• Estimated order size: 2–12 jets per country (if any).
• Decision factors: cost, training/maintenance footprint, political ties with India.
• Likelihood: Low–moderate.

Overarching Export Constraints & Catalysts (cross-country)

1. Production & Delivery Credibility: HAL must demonstrate timely deliveries against IAF obligations. Many buyers prioritize suppliers who can meet schedules. (This is arguably the single biggest barrier.)  
2. Engine/Variant Availability: Mk-1A (F404) is ready for early exports; Mk-2 (F414) — the true export accelerator — won’t be widely available until F414 co-production and first indigenous outputs (2028+) materialize. Buyers seeking higher payload/range will wait for Mk-2.  
3. Financing & Offsets/Co-production: Many potential customers (Argentina, Egypt, Malaysia, Philippines) require credit lines, local industrial offsets, or assembly to make deals attractive. HAL/India diplomatic support will be decisive.  
4. Competition: FA-50, JF-17, and used F-16/Gripen options are ready alternatives — often cheaper or with proven delivery records. Tejas must differentiate on life-cycle cost, local production, and political partnership.  

Conservative Export Forecast (country totals by 2030, illustrative)

• Malaysia: 10–18 (if lost to FA-50 this falls to 0) — decisive single contest.  
• Philippines: 6–12 (naval/strike variant phased buys).  
• Egypt: 8–20 (if MRO & financing agreed).  
• Argentina: 6–12 (finance dependent).  
• Botswana & Africa (others): 10–25 combined (price-sensitive deals).  

Total (conservative to moderate): 40–85 aircraft by 2030 — heavily dependent on Malaysia and Egypt decisions, HAL delivery credibility, and whether Mk-2 availability accelerates orders.

Realistic Deal Flow & Export Forecast

Near-term (2025–2027)

• Malaysia emerges as the most credible near-term prospect, given formal RFPs and established evaluation cycles.
• Argentina & Egypt remain potential, but uncertain given financing and possible preference for FA-50 or other Western platforms.
• Philippines discussions are ongoing; Tejas is competing against stronger alternatives.
• Botswana interest was public but has not progressed to firm negotiations.

Mid to Late 2020s (2028–2030)

• Tejas Mk-1A production ramp-up may create export bandwidth, enabling deals if offset agreements or joint industrial ties are offered.
• Availability of Tejas Mk-2 with F414 engines and improved capabilities could make it a stronger contender globally.
• Private-sector collaboration and higher production could enhance attractiveness to price-sensitive customers.

Outlook

• Tejas has moderate short-term export potential, with Malaysia leading, and Egypt, Argentina, Philippines as watchlist cases.
• A Tejas Mk-2 ramp-up (post-2028) could drive stronger export interest, especially if supported by co-production, offsets, and better marketing.
• Achieving actual export orders may be gradual until HAL demonstrates consistent production velocity and global sustainment partnerships.

Tejas Mk1A represents a leap forward in India’s indigenous fighter capability—featuring glass cockpits, AESA radar options, modern EW, flexible weapons, and maintainable design. The forthcoming Mk2 promises even greater improvements in payload, avionics, low-RCS, and cockpit ergonomics to match or exceed global contemporaries at a competitive cost point. While still catching up in endurance and some high-end systems, its rapid evolution underscores India’s growing self-reliance in defense aviation.

Also Read, In Depth Analysis: Tejas MK2